Orange County Crime

Every neighborhood and city in this country suffers from some crime. Even communities surrounded by gates and patrolled by guards will see family violence or pilfering by visitors.

So the question to ask when shopping for a home or apartment is not: Is this neighborhood safe? But rather, how safe is it compared to other places?

In California and elsewhere, crime often follows demographics: High-income neighborhoods generally have low crime, middle-income places middling crime, and low-income towns and neighborhoods high crime.

Generally — many exceptions. There are many low-income towns in California that have little crime.

Those that do suffer crime problems often have aggravating forces, gangs foremost.

Guns are another problem. In Europe, they punch each other; here, we pull the trigger.

In 2000, France, about 54 million people, counted 503 murders. In 2002, the United Kingdom (England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland), 58 million residents, recorded 513 murders. This works out to about nine murders for every million people.

In the U.S., population about 300 million, homicides in 2005 totaled 16,692 or about 56 murders for every million people.

Guns accounted for at least 10,100 deaths, and of these handguns shot 7,543 of the victims. (And compared to 15 years ago, murders and crime are way down. In 1993, the U.S. recorded 24,526 homicides.)

Local Crime

Compared to the rest of the nation, Orange County is peaceful with the exception of a few cities, and even here violence has dropped over the last 15 years.

The county, with a population of about 3 million in 2005, counted 77 homicides in that year. This works out to 25 per million.

Of the 77, Anaheim accounted for 10 and Santa Ana for 17 or about a third of the total. In the 1990s, Anaheim was recording homicides in 30s and Santa Ana in the 70s.

Anaheim and Santa Ana are the two most populous cities in the county. Within each, many neighborhoods are low in crime or have middling crime and a few have serious problems — a typical pattern in many big cities.

Lest this seem to minimize the dangers, you should always be aware of your surroundings, lock your doors, educate your children about safety and take extra care in certain circumstances.

Many cities and neighborhoods in Orange County go years without reporting a homicide. When a murder is committed, often the victim and the murderer know each other or are related. This doesn't make the deed any less heinous but random murders or murders by strangers often are more upsetting.

Crime and Housing

As for how crime relates to choosing a neighborhood, some suggestions:

• Take a look at the academic rankings of the neighborhood school. Very low rankings indicate that many children are failing, that the dropout rate is probably high, that the young people will have difficulty finding jobs — conditions that sometimes breed crime.

• In middle-scoring towns, the failures are fewer. In higher-scoring towns, fewer still.

• Drive the neighborhood. The signs of trouble are often easily read: men idling around the liquor store, bars on many windows, security doors in wide use.

Should you avoid unsafe or marginal neighborhoods?

For some people, the answer depends on trade-offs and personal circumstances. The troubled neighborhoods often carry low prices or rents and are located near job centers.

Many towns and sections are in transition; conditions could improve, the investment might be worthwhile. What’s intolerable to a parent might be acceptable to a single person.

Another factor: the security setup that comes with the housing, particularly apartment complexes. McCormack’s publishes guides throughout metropolitan California. We can cite several cities where the demographics say high crime but the reality is low crime.

Some factors: fast police response, well run and well staffed police departments, security guards, gates and cameras. And residents who know they have to be wary.

In some of the older neighborhoods of Orange County, residents have installed chain-link fences around their front yards and driveways. At night, they park their cars in the driveway and roll the gate closed. Anyone who wants to steal a vehicle has to jimmy the car and unlock or mess around with the gate. The extra time this takes may be enough to discourage most thieves.

OK, a hassle and extra expense for the homeowner but this may be the price of living in an affordable neighborhood in a very pleasant spot on the planet.

California Crime

Of the 2,503 homicides in 2005 in California, 1,845 were shot to death, the FBI reported.

Of the 1,845, handguns accounted for 1,493 deaths, rifles 83, shotguns 76 and other firearms 193. Knives were used in 288 homicides, other weapons in 237 and hands and fists in 133.

Megan's Law

For a list of registered sex offenders by town or city, go to www.meganslaw.ca.gov.

Miscellaneous:

• Crime Drop. The decrease in the crime in the 1990s was mirrored in many cities across the country. And many were the people and ideas that claimed credit. These included locking more people up, rising prosperity, more abortions (which, the theory goes, reduced the number of young men who might be prone to violence), better police work and faster, better medical care, which saved lives that would have been lost 10 or 20 years ago.

• California is locking up more people to the point where our prisons are bulging. The governor wanted to export our convicts to prisons in other states but this idea was shot down.

The alternative: release more prisoners earlier or build more prisons. Our guess: some of both, especially with prisoners who don’t have a history of violence.